And just like that, the peaks surrounding Lake Tahoe and Mammoth got a healthy dose of their first snowfall of the season this weekend. Snow in Lake Tahoe isn’t a rare thing, even in May or June… but August? It’s been over two decades since it snowed in the Sierra this early. The question then is this a symbol of things to come for the upcoming ski season? We take a look.
Pure Speculation
Before we jump into any comparisons, we want to highlight that Tahoe winters are notoriously unpredictable. No matter what you think it’s going to do… you can’t predict it. All we can say is even in drought winters like the 2019/20 ski season or the epic ones such as 2022/23 ski season, there will be snow. We just can’t tell you how much or when.
What Happened When it Snowed Last in August?
The last time Palisades Tahoe saw snow in August was 2004. So, how did the 2004-2005 ski season unfold? Well, in one word – REMARKABLE! That October saw the highest snowfall in the Sierra since at least 1945! Mammoth received over 82 inches and had 40% of its terrain open. The rest of the Sierra got 4-6 feet of snow, which led to excellent conditions all the way into Thanksgiving.
Throughout the winter and spring, massive storms continued to hammer the region, punctuated by the classic Sierra breaks. The long and outstanding season finally wrapped up with some powder days even into May!
The Flip Side – 2014 Cold Snap
In addition to the early snowfall, it hasn’t been this cold in August since 2014. You may remember that the 2014-15 season was one of the driest winters Tahoe experienced that decade, rivaling the infamous 1976-77 season as one of the worst in Sierra history. That winter had numerous record low snowfalls, especially at lower elevations and on the leeward side of the Crest. Despite this, the good news is Mammoth managed to stay open until Memorial Day!
Remember ENSO!
In the end, an early season snowfall or cold temps is merely a fun way to speculate just like wooly caterpillars and otters. There is one factor that does provide a slight help for predicting the upcoming winter for meteorologists: ENSO. Both the 2014/15 ski season and 2004/05 were pseudo El Ninos while this winter is currently predicted to be a La Nina. In the end, it all depends on if you’re a glass half full or half empty person. For us, whatever it does we’ll be happy to be sliding on the snow again.
Most accurate long term forecast I’ve found, “The hotter the summer, the wetter the winter.”